Top 5 U.S. Presidents With Highest S&P 500 Returns
The relationship between U.S. presidents and the stock market has long fascinated investors, economists, and historians. While no president directly controls the S&P 500, an index tracking the performance of 500 large-cap U.S. companies.
Economic policies, global events, and fiscal decisions during their terms can influence market trends. From booms driven by technological innovation to busts amid recessions and crises, presidential eras offer a lens into how leadership intersects with Wall Street.
This article ranks American presidents by the total S&P 500 returns during their terms (or full terms for multi-term presidents), focusing on the post-World War II era where reliable S&P 500 data is available (starting from 1957, with earlier approximations using the Dow Jones Industrial Average where necessary). Data is drawn from historical analyses up to the end of Joe Biden’s term in January 2025, with annualized returns provided for context.
Note that markets often reflect inherited conditions: A president may benefit from or suffer due to the previous administration’s policies, and external factors like wars, pandemics, and Federal Reserve actions play outsized roles. Returns are calculated from inauguration day to the end of the term, excluding dividends unless specified, and represent total percentage gains in the index.
As of September 2025, the S&P 500 stands at approximately 6,532, continuing its long-term upward trajectory despite short-term volatility.
Top 5 Presidents by S&P 500 Returns
Here’s a ranking of the presidents with the highest S&P 500 performance during their administrations.
Bill Clinton leads the pack, overseeing a tech-fueled bull market in the 1990s, while more recent leaders like Donald Trump and Joe Biden benefited from post-recession recoveries and stimulus measures.
| Rank | President | Party | Term(s) | Total S&P 500 Return | Annualized Return | Key Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Clinton | Democrat | 1993–2001 | +210% | ~15.2% | The dot-com boom, balanced budgets, and NAFTA fueled explosive growth. The S&P 500 saw double-digit gains in most years, peaking with a 33% surge in 1995. |
| 2 | Barack Obama | Democrat | 2009–2017 | +182% (full two terms) | ~10.8% | Inherited the Great Recession; markets rebounded with quantitative easing and the Affordable Care Act. First term: +84%; second: +98%. |
| 3 | Donald Trump (First Term) | Republican | 2017–2021 | +67% | ~13.7% (strong early gains) | Tax cuts and deregulation drove initial rallies, but COVID-19 caused a 2020 crash followed by a V-shaped recovery. |
| 4 | Ronald Reagan | Republican | 1981–1989 | +126% (two terms) | ~10.8% | Supply-side economics, falling inflation, and the end of the Cold War era. Five years of double-digit growth, including 26% in 1985. |
| 5 | Joe Biden | Democrat | 2021–2025 | +56% | ~11.2% | Post-pandemic stimulus, infrastructure bills, and AI/tech surges offset inflation and rate hikes. Strong 2021 (+27%) but volatile later years. |
Data sources include historical S&P 500 performance metrics from MacroTrends, Kiplinger, and Forbes analyses up to 2025. Returns are approximate and may vary slightly by exact calculation method (e.g., including dividends boosts totals by 2-3% annually on average).
Honorable Mentions and Broader Trends
- Dwight D. Eisenhower (1953–1961, Republican): +145% total (~10.5% annualized). Post-Korean War stability and interstate highway investments supported steady growth.
- George H.W. Bush (1989–1993, Republican): +51% (~10.2% annualized). Gulf War victory and early 1990s recovery, though a mild recession hit late.
- Lyndon B. Johnson (1963–1969, Democrat): +63% (~8.9% annualized). Great Society programs and Vietnam-era spending amid rising inflation.
On average, since 1947, Democratic presidents have overseen S&P 500 annualized returns of about 10.8%, compared to 5.6% under Republicans—a gap attributed to factors like fiscal policy differences and luck with business cycles. Ten of the 11 recessions since 1953 began under Republican administrations, often dragging down market performance. However, individual terms vary wildly: Democrats hold seven of the top 10 spots for first-year returns from election day.
The Bottom Performers: Presidents with the Lowest Returns
For contrast, here are the weakest performers, often tied to major crises:
1. George W. Bush (2001–2009, Republican): -40% total (-6.8% annualized). Dot-com bust, 9/11, and the 2008 financial crisis wiped out trillions.
2. Herbert Hoover (1929–1933, Republican): -80% (using Dow data; Great Depression onset).
3. Richard Nixon (1969–1974, Republican): +6% total (but -10% annualized in some metrics due to Watergate and oil shocks).
Even in down periods, the long-term market trend is positive: The S&P 500 has risen in 80% of presidential terms since 1928.
Why Presidents Matter (But Not as Much as You Think)
Presidential influence on stocks is indirect. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates, Congress approves budgets, and global events like pandemics or wars often dominate.
For instance, Trump’s first term saw strong returns despite trade wars, while Biden’s navigated inflation but capitalized on tech rebounds. Investors are reminded that past performance isn’t indicative of future results, election years average 7-8% S&P gains, but non-election years often do better.
As we look ahead, with the S&P 500 hitting new highs in 2025 amid AI advancements and cooling inflation, the next president’s term could continue this bull run, or face unforeseen headwinds.
